Arizona, once a reliably red state, has become more competitive in recent years as more Californians have moved there in search of lower taxes, cheaper housing, and better quality of life. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona gained about 129,000 new residents from California between 2019 and 2020, the largest net migration from any state. These newcomers, who tend to be more liberal and diverse than the native Arizonans, have helped shift the political landscape of the Grand Canyon State.
How California Influenced Arizona’s 2020 Election
In the 2020 presidential election, Arizona voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 0.3%, making it the first time since 1996 that the state backed a Democratic candidate. Biden also won the support of Maricopa County, the most populous and urbanized county in the state, which had not voted for a Democrat since 1948. Analysts attributed Biden’s victory in Arizona partly to the influx of Californians, who brought with them their progressive values and preferences. For instance, a poll by The Arizona Republic found that 62% of Californians who moved to Arizona in the past two years voted for Biden, compared to 45% of native Arizonans.
Another example of California’s influence on Arizona’s politics was the legalization of recreational marijuana, which passed by a 60% to 40% margin in the 2020 ballot. Arizona was one of four states that joined California in legalizing cannabis for adult use, along with New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota. The measure was backed by a coalition of pro-marijuana groups, including some that had ties to California’s cannabis industry. The legalization of marijuana in Arizona could have significant economic and social impacts, as well as implications for criminal justice reform.
What California’s Migration Means for Arizona’s 2024 Election
As the 2024 election approaches, Arizona is expected to remain a battleground state, with both parties vying for its 11 electoral votes. However, the continued migration of Californians to Arizona could tip the balance in favor of the Democrats, who have been gaining ground in the state’s suburbs and cities. According to a report by the Brookings Institution, Arizona is projected to gain about 660,000 new residents from 2020 to 2024, of which about 200,000 will come from California. The report also estimates that about 70% of these new Californians will be eligible to vote, and that they will lean Democratic by a 2-to-1 margin.
The Republicans, on the other hand, will face challenges in retaining their base of support in Arizona, especially among the older, white, and rural voters who have traditionally favored the GOP. The report suggests that the Republicans will need to appeal to the growing segments of the electorate, such as the Latinos, Asians, and young people, who tend to favor the Democrats. The report also warns that the Republicans will need to avoid alienating the moderate and independent voters, who may be turned off by the party’s embrace of Trumpism and its rejection of mainstream conservatism.
Conclusion
The migration of Californians to Arizona is a demographic trend that has reshaped the state’s political landscape and could have a decisive impact on the 2024 election. The newcomers, who are more liberal and diverse than the native Arizonans, have helped the Democrats win the state in 2020 and advance their progressive agenda. The Republicans, meanwhile, will have to adapt to the changing electorate and offer a more inclusive and pragmatic vision for the state’s future. Arizona, once a solid red state, has become a purple state that could turn blue in 2024.